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The Meaning of a Romney Loss in Michigan

What happens if Romney loses next week in Michigan?

At the beginning of the primaries, many analysts thought Romney had the electing in the bag. Yet, Santorum’s continued success as well as the success of some of the third and fourth place individuals has shown that Romney still has his work cut out for him. Romney loses the Michigan primary next week, he could be in for a long battle.

Romney is a native son of Michigan. This means a Michigan loss would create a bit of a PR mess. But the campaign has plenty of funds and is very well organized, so they would be able to pull out after a Michigan loss. It would just mean that his work is going to have to double to triple in scope through the end of the primary season.
Does Santorum have a chance? Up until recently, Romney has led the polls in Michigan, but that is starting to change. Santorum is increasing popularity, and he has pulled ahead in some of the pools. Romney is attempting to respond by attacking Santorum’s credibility, which is a strategy that worked in defeating Gingrich in Florida and Iowa.

Romney also has the advantage of being able to point to his Michigan heritage. By tossing around local terms during speeches, he is able to garner some local support. People know his name, and when it comes time to vote that can be a very important factor. Even if he loses, he will get a lot of delegates because the vote is expected to be close, and the election is not a “winner takes all” type.